@Article{CapistranoNVTSBSLFBKRGVN:2020:AsPeCl,
author = "Capistrano, Vinicius Buscioli and Nobre, Paulo and Veiga, Sandro
Miguel Ferreira and Tedeschi, Renata and Silva, Josiane and
Bottino, Marcus and Silva J{\'u}nior, Manoel Baptista da and
Leandro, Menezes Otac{\'{\i}}lio and Figueroa, Silvio Nilo and
Bonatti, Jos{\'e} Paulo and Kubota, Paulo Yoshio and Reyes
Fernandez, Julio Pablo and Giarolla, Emanuel and Vial, Jessica and
Nobre, Carlos Afonso",
affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas
Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and
{Universidade do Estado do Amazonas (UEA)} and {Centro Nacional de
Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN)}",
title = "Assessing the performance of climate change simulation results
from BESM-OA2.5 compared with a CMIP5 model ensemble",
journal = "Geoscientific Model Development",
year = "2020",
volume = "13",
number = "5",
pages = "2277--2296",
month = "May",
abstract = "The main features of climate change patterns, as simulated by the
coupled oceanatmosphere version 2.5 of the Brazilian Earth System
Model (BESM), are compared with those of 25 other CMIP5 models,
focusing on temperature, precipitation, atmospheric circulation,
and radiative feedbacks. The climate sensitivity to quadrupling
the atmospheric CO2 concentration was investigated via two
methods: linear regression (Gregory et al., 2004) and radiative
kernels (Soden and Held, 2006; Soden et al., 2008). Radiative
kernels from both the National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) were
used to decompose the climate feedback responses of the CMIP5
models and BESM into different processes. By applying the linear
regression method for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)
estimation, we obtained a BESM value close to the ensemble mean
value. This study reveals that the BESM simulations yield zonally
average feedbacks, as estimated from radiative kernels, that lie
within the ensemble standard deviation. Exceptions were found in
the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and over the ocean
near Antarctica, where BESM showed values for lapse rate, humidity
feedback, and albedo that were marginally outside the standard
deviation of the values from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble. For
those areas, BESM also featured a strong positive cloud feedback
that appeared as an outlier compared with all analyzed models.
However, BESM showed physically consistent changes in the
temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation patterns
relative to the CMIP5 ensemble mean.",
doi = "10.5194/gmd-13-2277-2020",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2277-2020",
issn = "1991-959X",
language = "en",
targetfile = "capistrano_assessing.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}